Are Romney and Huntsman the Only Serious 2012 GOP Candidates?

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The GOP field is crowded still, but it won?t be for long. Primaries kick off in just over a month, and so far it?s still anybody?s game. Presumptive front-runner Mitt Romney continues to hold steady in the polls ? at second place. Following the birther-bump one-time candidate Donald Trump enjoyed, we?ve seen everyone from Michele Bachmann to Rick Perry to Hermain Cain and now Newt Gingrich rise up to the top slot only to crash back down again once voters realized what lousy candidates they were.

Many of these sometime front-runners are trying to capitalize on the Tea Party vote, but Colin Powell says that?s a losing game. ?The Tea Party point of view of ?no compromise whatsoever? is not a point of view that will eventually produce a presidential candidate who will win,? he said on ABC?s ?This Week With Christiane Amanpour.?

?Compromise is how this country was founded,? he said.

Compromise is also how Newt Gingrich achieved as much as he did as Speaker of the House and how Romney managed to pass healthcare reform in his state. It?s a quality that the current president has had from the get-go, much to the chagrin of anyone very far to the right or the left of him.

And yes, it really does win elections.

David Frum writes:

I?m looking for two chief things in a candidate for 2012:

1. The temperament, judgment, deftness and largeness of spirit required in the presidential office; and
2. The creativity and intellect to respond to the global economic crisis ? a crisis threatening to actually get worse if (or when) the euro implodes.

Those conditions obviously and categorically exclude the clownish Herman Cain, the daffy Ron Paul, the dim Rick Perry and the firebrand congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

It also excludes the very socially conservative Rick Santorum who ?speaks for too narrow a slice? of the American people, and Newt Gingrich.

Back in the 1990s, Gingrich made himself one of the most disliked figures in the recent history of American politics. As American political commentator Jay Cost reminds us, within 24 months of becoming Speaker, Gingrich had forced a shutdown of the federal government and sunk to an approve/disapprove rating of negative 25. There Gingrich languished through ethics challenges, impeachment and the revelation that he?d been carrying on an extra-marital affair while attacking Bill Clinton?s own sexual misconduct.

A Gingrich presidency, if such a thing can even be imagined, would be a chaotic catastrophe. A Gingrich nomination would yield an Obama landslide.

Not even newspaper endorsements in early primary states can save Gingrich from his own record.

That leaves Romney and Huntsman in the ring, as far as Frum is concerned. Like David, I like Huntsman?s independence and social stances. He?s a more inclusive, modern-times sort of Republican. Also like David, I find Huntsman?s economic agenda too far to the right.

I think Huntsman is probably not actually as fiscally conservative as his fairly radical plan suggests. David describes it as ?pure Wall Street Journal editorial page: Big tax cuts for the highest-income earners, radical cuts in retirement benefits for people now under 55.?

Is Huntsman trying to grab up whatever slice of the Tea Party vote he can in order to appeal to the base? His moderate stance on global warming, gay marriage, and his more anti-interventionist foreign policy views all make him a fairly unlikely GOP nominee. Maybe going full-bore fiscal conservative is just his strategy to net some enthusiasm in the Tea Party. Or maybe he really is just a deficit hawk who happens to be moderate in every other category but fiscal policy.

If Colin Powell is right, both Romney and Huntsman will have to stop trying so hard to sound like hardcore right-wingers in the general election. Both are pragmatists and right-of-center moderates, good qualities in the general but not so great during primary season.?Huntsman has been more willing to step outside of the orthodox party line but so far that hasn?t won him any lucky breaks. Romney is toeing the party line like his life depended on it.

If I had to put money on it, I?d still bet on Romney. He?s still trading way above the rest of the contenders at Intrade. Huntsman edges out Ron Paul for third place, with Gingrich coming in at a distant second. It may be that Huntsman rises when Newt settles back down to earth, and if that?s the case he could time it out perfectly. Iowa?s caucuses are on January 3rd followed a week later by the New Hampshire primary.

Ron Paul is another wildcard. Like Romney, it?s been difficult for the congressman to break out of steady third-to-fourth place numbers. He?s polling pretty steadily across the board. I suspect this has a lot to do with his foreign policy views which are unpopular among a large portion of the GOP base.

If either Paul or?Huntsman can get a burst of support and slide into the revolving front-runner spot, they could snatch victory out of the jaws of the Romney campaign. It?s almost a game of presidential roulette at this point. Anything could happen. This election season, it may be all in the timing.

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Source: http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2011/11/27/are-romney-and-huntsman-the-only-serious-2012-gop-candidates/

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